Your risk of homicide depends not only on where you live—but also where you come from.

Pick where you live now and where you were born to see how your risk compares with people born in your area.

Current state (residence)

Birth state (origin)

Pick your states to view your estimated risk.

Homicide risk (per 100,000)

Locals baseline Adjusted with origin

Historical homicide rate by state (per 100,000)

Lower Higher

Darker blue = higher homicide rate

Try it: How does the homicide risk where you live change for people from safer or more violent states?

SafestMost violent

Choose a residence and move the slider to see the effect.

Technical notes

Estimates for white, non‑Hispanic Americans. Outcomes are 2000–2017 homicide rates; historical inputs are 1933–1942 white homicide rates. There is insufficient data to provide stable estimates for non‑white populations in this framework. DC is included.

Method: We anchor on the non‑migrant homicide rate for your residence state and adjust by a calibrated factor k × (Hist_birth / G)^β with β = 0.23, G = 4.01, k = 1.018. These coefficients are estimated in the research article "Migration and the Persistence of Violence" by Martin Larsen, Gabriel Lenz and Anna Mikkelborg. Read it here.